How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?
$107.39K Vol.
26d
9h
17m
$107,391 Vol.
Mar 4, 2026
Outcome
% Chance
≤5
≤5
$36.8K Vol.
7%
22+
22+
$14.02K Vol.
2%
18-21
18-21
$8.68K Vol.
14%
14-17
14-17
$9.2K Vol.
31%
10-13
10-13
$13.09K Vol.
32%
6-9
6-9
$25.59K Vol.
18%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between February 1 and February 28, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by March 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.