US strikes Iran by...?
June 30
51%
March 31
40%
February 28
28%
February 20
18%
February 13
12%
February 9
7%
February 8
6%
February 7
4%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
December 31
No
February 4
No
February 3
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 15
No
January 14
No
January 13
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
$175,241,347 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
February 28
1%
No strike by February 28
72%
February 27
<1%
February 26
<1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 22
<1%
February 21
2%
February 20
1%
February 19
<1%
February 18
<1%
February 17
<1%
February 16
<1%
February 15
<1%
February 14
2%
February 13
3%
February 12
1%
February 11
<1%
February 10
1%
February 9
1%
February 8
2%
February 7
3%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
$6,748,571 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
7%
chance
$5,856,888 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
María Corina Machado
11%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
2%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Edmundo González
5%
Delcy Rodríguez
69%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$15,794,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Starmer - UK PM
10%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
<1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
83%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
$5,577,668 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
63%
June 30
51%
March 31
40%
February 28
27%
February 15
15%
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 22
No
January 21
No
January 20
No
January 19
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
January 10
No
January 9
No
January 8
No
$10,594,935 Vol.
Feb 15, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,742,353 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
17%
chance
$9,983,237 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
6%
chance
$409,029 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
3%
chance
$2,109,797 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
94%
chance
$965,515 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Where will the US & Iran meet in person?
Turkey
1%
The United States
1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
No Meeting by Feb 13
22%
Oman
67%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
3%
Another Country
2%
$293,401 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?
February 13
76%
February 6
63%
$449,176 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
February 7
48%
February 6
51%
February 5
53%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
February 2
Yes
February 1
Yes
$723,434 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
6%
chance
$504,220 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
Jerome Powell
16%
Kevin Warsh
71%
Vladimir Putin
64%
Pope Leo XIV
5%
Maria Corina Machado
19%
Mohammed bin Salman
41%
MrBeast
10%
Yoon Suk Yeol
2%
Roger Goodell
64%
Reza Pahlavi
11%
Christopher Waller
17%
Rick Rieder
13%
Kevin Hassett
69%
Nicolás Maduro
3%
Kim Jong Un
4%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
72%
Ali Khamenei
4%
Mette Frederiksen
42%
Roger Stone
50%
Emmanuel Macron
63%
Xi Jinping
Yes
$238,919 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?
82%
chance
$280,315 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Next Country US Strikes
Yemen
1%
Somalia
86%
Colombia
<1%
Iran
8%
Mexico
<1%
Nigeria
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
Venezuela
<1%
Cuba
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Syria
4%
Other
<1%
$168,151 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
25%
chance
$4,272,379 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
19%
chance
$619,512 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026