Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,753,654 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2%
chance
$2,120,277 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
25%
chance
$572,995 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
45%
chance
$8,415,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
7%
chance
$41,604 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
33%
chance
$109,324 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
12%
chance
$216,086 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
15%
chance
$7,840 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
29%
chance
$47,942 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
June 30
33%
March 31
19%
February 28
6%
December 31
No
January 31
No
$1,333,236 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
26%
chance
$276,078 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
29%
chance
$385,857 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
28%
chance
$38,104 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
25%
chance
$95,261 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
June 30
24%
March 31
7%
January 31
No
$161,676 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
6%
chance
$30,566 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
December 31
36%
June 30
11%
$59,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
33%
chance
$75,915 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
20%
chance
$19,885 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
31%
chance
$4,331 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026