Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,754,160 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2%
chance
$2,120,277 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
6%
chance
$504,521 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on...?
February 7
26%
February 6
26%
February 5
8%
February 4
<1%
February 3
Yes
February 2
No
February 1
No
$358,498 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
25%
chance
$572,995 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
45%
chance
$8,415,931 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?
February 28
>99%
February 14
>99%
$76,308 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?
March 31
62%
February 28
29%
December 31
No
November 30
No
November 21
No
November 14
No
October 31
No
September 30
No
January 31
No
January 15
No
$3,827,781 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
June 30
25%
December 31
No
February 4
No
$563,282 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
March 31
55%
February 28
30%
January 31
No
$609,698 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
March 31
44%
February 28
8%
December 31
No
November 30
No
January 31
No
$1,395,982 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
11%
chance
$1,910,241 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
March 31
44%
December 31
No
November 30
No
$691,814 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Russia capture Rodynske by...?
February 28
32%
December 31
No
November 30
No
October 31
No
September 30
No
September 15
No
January 31
No
$1,265,464 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
23%
chance
$1,473,583 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
March 31
29%
February 28
12%
January 31
No
January 15
No
$320,341 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Turkey
3%
Russia
3%
Italy / Vatican
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
China
1%
Qatar / UAE
8%
Saudi Arabia
3%
US
4%
Hungary
3%
Belarus
1%
No meeting before 2027
77%
Switzerland
<1%
India
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
$437,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
March 31
55%
February 28
26%
$6,614 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Druzkhivka
37%
Kramatorsk
26%
Kherson
4%
Sloviansk
24%
Sumy
9%
Dopropillia
64%
Kharkiv
4%
Zaporizhia
14%
$450,998 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
June 30, 2026
9%
December 31, 2025
No
$2,264,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026