event icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

February 28

1%

No strike by February 28

73%

February 27

<1%

February 26

<1%

February 25

<1%

February 24

<1%

February 23

<1%

February 22

<1%

February 21

2%

February 20

<1%

February 19

<1%

February 18

<1%

February 17

<1%

February 16

<1%

February 15

<1%

February 14

2%

February 13

3%

February 12

1%

February 11

<1%

February 10

1%

February 9

1%

February 8

2%

February 7

3%

February 6

2%

February 5

<1%

February 4

<1%

February 3

<1%

January 2026

No

February 2

No

February 1

No

$6,767,892 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

December 31

64%

June 30

51%

March 31

41%

February 28

27%

February 15

14%

January 31

No

January 30

No

January 29

No

January 28

No

January 27

No

January 26

No

January 25

No

January 24

No

January 23

No

January 22

No

January 21

No

January 20

No

January 19

No

January 18

No

January 17

No

January 16

No

January 12

No

January 11

No

January 10

No

January 9

No

January 8

No

$10,597,791 Vol.

Feb 15, 2026

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

16%

chance

$9,989,181 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

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Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

February 7

50%

February 6

56%

February 5

42%

February 4

<1%

February 3

<1%

February 2

Yes

February 1

Yes

$731,018 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

25%

chance

$4,277,041 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

event icon

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

21%

chance

$628,230 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

event icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

40%

chance

$2,231,470 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

event icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

11%

chance

$3,791,729 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

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Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

February 7

52%

February 6

42%

February 5

36%

February 3

<1%

February 4

Yes

February 2

No

February 1

No

$558,741 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

38%

chance

$1,867,307 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

event icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

32%

chance

$3,733,751 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

event icon

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

36%

chance

$139,849 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

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Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

June 30, 2026

49%

March 31, 2026

40%

December 31

No

October 31

No

September 30

No

August 31

No

July 31

No

July 11

No

June 27

No

$4,659,186 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

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Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

53%

chance

$127,030 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

event icon

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2026

21%

June 30, 2026

9%

December 31, 2025

No

$1,633,300 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

21%

chance

$1,222,830 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

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Israel strike on Yemen by...?

June 30

60%

March 31

27%

$210,502 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

December 31

25%

June 30

18%

March 31

11%

January 31

No

$551,920 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

48%

chance

$49,720 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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How many different countries will Israel strike in February?

≤1

41%

3

14%

2

37%

≥4

10%

$70,737 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026