Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
12%
chance
$8,115,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$1,952,827 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
April 30, 2026
84%
March 31, 2026
3%
October 31, 2025
No
$1,037,446 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Russia
19%
France
3%
Germany
3%
China
4%
Ukraine
13%
India
14%
Denmark
3%
Palestine
5%
Netherlands
4%
Italy
9%
Norway
2%
Sweden
3%
U.K.
4%
Belgium
2%
Spain
4%
Brazil
10%
Switzerland
4%
Finland
6%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$668,727 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Which robot dancer brands will feature at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala
Unitree Robotics
99%
Booster Robotics
5%
Zhipu Robotics
9%
Agibot
5%
$19,304 Vol.
Feb 16, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
5%
chance
$574,720 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
5%
chance
$376,884 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
40%
chance
$134,722 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?
9%
chance
$11,308 Vol.
Feb 16, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
$733,281 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Cai Qi
12%
Wang Huning
9%
Ding Xuexiang
10%
Zhang Shengmin
16%
Wang Yi
9%
Li Qiang
4%
Zhao Leji
11%
Li Xi
12%
Dong Jun
17%
$16,028 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
$43,776 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
16%
chance
$7,827 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
China coup attempt before 2027?
8%
chance
$86,920 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?
1%
chance
$13,188 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
DeepSeek V4 released by...?
March 31
88%
February 28
69%
January 31
No
$21,481 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
24%
chance
$38,996 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
13%
chance
$331,373 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
11%
chance
$20,207 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Who will acquire TikTok?
AppLovin
2%
Microsoft
6%
Amazon
3%
Meta
4%
Walmart
4%
Elon Musk / X (Twitter)
3%
Larry Ellison/Oracle
Yes
$905,075 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026