Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,753,574 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2%
chance
$2,120,277 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
96%
chance
$986,534 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
13%
chance
$26,570,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
25%
chance
$572,895 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
45%
chance
$8,415,835 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
12%
chance
$8,115,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$1,952,827 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
December 31
25%
June 30
18%
March 31
11%
January 31
No
$551,920 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
June 30
25%
December 31
No
February 4
No
$563,282 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
48%
chance
$49,720 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Russia
19%
France
3%
Germany
3%
China
4%
Ukraine
13%
India
14%
Denmark
3%
Palestine
5%
Netherlands
4%
Italy
9%
Norway
2%
Sweden
3%
U.K.
4%
Belgium
2%
Spain
4%
Brazil
10%
Switzerland
4%
Finland
6%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$668,727 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?
4%
chance
$134,012 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US strike on Mexico by...?
December 31
25%
March 31
8%
January 31
No
$2,295,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
June 30, 2026
9%
December 31, 2025
No
$2,264,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
$733,281 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
March 31, 2026
13%
December 31
No
November 30
No
October 31
No
September 30
No
August 31
No
$6,665,875 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?
15+
3%
14
3%
13
4%
12
4%
11
5%
10
11%
9
12%
8
15%
7
15%
6
24%
5
13%
4
7%
3
2%
2
No
1
No
0
No
$179,949 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Syria
24%
United Kingdom
86%
Israel
57%
Canada
29%
Mexico
59%
Saudi Arabia
60%
Japan
47%
Germany
80%
South Korea
33%
France
87%
Russia
27%
Ukraine
27%
Taiwan
7%
China
94%
Italy
59%
Oman
23%
India
59%
Belarus
16%
Turkey
82%
North Korea
12%
Switzerland
Yes
$101,185 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
June 30, 2026
38%
March 31, 2026
19%
February 28, 2026
6%
December 31
No
November 30
No
$1,470,923 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026