US strikes Iran by...?
June 30
51%
March 31
41%
February 28
28%
February 20
18%
February 13
12%
February 9
7%
February 8
6%
February 7
5%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
December 31
No
February 4
No
February 3
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 15
No
January 14
No
January 13
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
$175,485,255 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
February 28
1%
No strike by February 28
73%
February 27
<1%
February 26
<1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 22
<1%
February 21
2%
February 20
<1%
February 19
<1%
February 18
<1%
February 17
<1%
February 16
<1%
February 15
<1%
February 14
2%
February 13
3%
February 12
1%
February 11
<1%
February 10
1%
February 9
1%
February 8
2%
February 7
3%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
$6,768,495 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
7%
chance
$5,861,624 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
64%
June 30
51%
March 31
41%
February 28
27%
February 15
14%
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 22
No
January 21
No
January 20
No
January 19
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
January 10
No
January 9
No
January 8
No
$10,597,896 Vol.
Feb 15, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
16%
chance
$9,989,181 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
97%
chance
$990,068 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
February 7
50%
February 6
55%
February 5
42%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
February 2
Yes
February 1
Yes
$731,028 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?
80%
chance
$280,934 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
25%
chance
$4,277,051 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
21%
chance
$628,230 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
40%
chance
$2,231,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
19%
chance
$231,081 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
11%
chance
$3,791,729 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
February 7
52%
February 6
42%
February 5
35%
February 3
<1%
February 4
Yes
February 2
No
February 1
No
$558,741 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
38%
chance
$1,867,308 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
19%
Taqaddom Party
<1%
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
<1%
Watani Alliance (Watani)
2%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
6%
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
<1%
Marada Movement (MM)
<1%
Islamic Group (IG)
<1%
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
2%
Amal Movement (Amal)
8%
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
<1%
Independence Movement (IM)
<1%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
<1%
National Liberal Party (NLP)
<1%
Mada Party (Mada)
<1%
Dignity Movement (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
61%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
$144,582 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
32%
chance
$3,733,753 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
36%
chance
$139,849 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?
80%
chance
$43,167 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
4%
chance
$338,290 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026