US strikes Iran by...?
June 30
51%
March 31
40%
February 28
28%
February 20
18%
February 13
12%
February 9
7%
February 8
6%
February 7
4%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
December 31
No
February 4
No
February 3
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 15
No
January 14
No
January 13
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
$175,241,347 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
97%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
Judy Shelton
2%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
$402,040,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Stephen A. Smith
<1%
Gretchen Whitmer
2%
Oprah Winfrey
<1%
Andy Beshear
3%
Pete Buttigieg
5%
Jon Ossoff
3%
Gina Raimondo
<1%
Raphael Warnock
<1%
Barack Obama
<1%
George Clooney
<1%
Cory Booker
<1%
Jon Stewart
2%
Tim Walz
<1%
Bernie Sanders
<1%
Mark Kelly
2%
Liz Cheney
<1%
Beto O’Rourke
<1%
Michelle Obama
<1%
Zohran Mamdani
<1%
Andrew Yang
<1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Rahm Emanuel
2%
John Fetterman
<1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Ruben Gallego
2%
Jared Polis
<1%
Mark Cuban
<1%
Phil Murphy
1%
Wes Moore
2%
J.B. Pritzker
3%
LeBron James
<1%
Hunter Biden
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
<1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%
MrBeast
<1%
Chris Murphy
<1%
Ro Khanna
1%
Josh Shapiro
6%
Roy Cooper
<1%
Jasmine Crockett
<1%
Kamala Harris
7%
Hillary Clinton
<1%
Gavin Newsom
32%
$601,286,115 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
25%
Elon Musk
<1%
Gavin Newsom
19%
Pete Buttigieg
2%
Tim Walz
<1%
Josh Shapiro
4%
Gretchen Whitmer
1%
Marco Rubio
8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Wes Moore
1%
Ron DeSantis
1%
LeBron James
<1%
Andy Beshear
2%
Glenn Youngkin
<1%
Tucker Carlson
<1%
Kamala Harris
5%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Stephen Smith
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
JB Pritzker
2%
Donald Trump
3%
Jamie Dimon
<1%
Donald Trump Jr.
<1%
Nikki Haley
<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
<1%
Greg Abbott
<1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Zohran Mamdani
<1%
Michelle Obama
<1%
$255,718,517 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Donald Trump
5%
J.D. Vance
49%
Rand Paul
<1%
Marco Rubio
12%
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
Glenn Youngkin
1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Matt Gaetz
1%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
2%
Nikki Haley
1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
<1%
Greg Abbott
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Tucker Carlson
2%
Brian Kemp
<1%
Byron Donalds
<1%
Ivanka Trump
<1%
Elise Stefanik
<1%
Josh Hawley
1%
Ted Cruz
1%
Elon Musk
<1%
Erika Kirk
<1%
Katie Britt
<1%
John Thune
<1%
Kristi Noem
<1%
Mike Pence
<1%
Tom Brady
<1%
Steve Bannon
<1%
$248,742,368 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Fed decision in March?
25 bps decrease
8%
50+ bps decrease
1%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change
91%
$59,022,543 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
What will Trump say this week (February 8)?
Nicki / Nikki / Rapper
18%
Hellhole
51%
Armada
30%
Transgender
62%
Biden's War
25%
TikTok
32%
Stagflation
6%
Kamala
38%
Anarchist
21%
Green Day / Bad Bunny
24%
Autopen / Auto Pen
Yes
Submarine / Helicopter
Yes
Cuba / Cigar
Yes
Hat
Yes
MAGA / Make America Great Again
Yes
No No No
Yes
Six Seven
Yes
$3,169,882 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?
740+
<1%
720-739
<1%
700-719
<1%
680-699
<1%
660-679
<1%
640-659
<1%
620-639
<1%
600-619
<1%
580-599
<1%
560-579
<1%
540-559
<1%
520-539
<1%
500-519
<1%
480-499
<1%
460-479
<1%
440-459
<1%
420-439
<1%
400-419
<1%
380-399
<1%
360-379
2%
340-359
8%
320-339
33%
300-319
39%
280-299
16%
260-279
2%
240-259
<1%
220-239
No
200-219
No
180-199
No
160-179
No
140-159
No
120-139
No
100-119
No
80-99
No
60-79
No
40-59
No
20-39
No
<20
No
$10,270,293 Vol.
Feb 6, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
February 28
1%
No strike by February 28
72%
February 27
<1%
February 26
<1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 22
<1%
February 21
2%
February 20
1%
February 19
<1%
February 18
<1%
February 17
<1%
February 16
<1%
February 15
<1%
February 14
2%
February 13
3%
February 12
1%
February 11
<1%
February 10
1%
February 9
1%
February 8
2%
February 7
3%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
$6,748,571 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
X banned in U.K. by March 31?
5%
chance
$2,104,972 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?
740+
<1%
720-739
<1%
700-719
<1%
680-699
<1%
660-679
<1%
640-659
<1%
620-639
<1%
600-619
<1%
580-599
<1%
560-579
<1%
540-559
<1%
520-539
<1%
500-519
<1%
480-499
1%
460-479
2%
440-459
2%
420-439
5%
400-419
6%
380-399
9%
360-379
14%
340-359
17%
320-339
19%
300-319
15%
280-299
7%
260-279
4%
240-259
2%
220-239
<1%
200-219
<1%
180-199
<1%
160-179
<1%
140-159
<1%
120-139
<1%
100-119
<1%
80-99
<1%
60-79
No
40-59
No
20-39
No
<20
No
$5,296,606 Vol.
Feb 10, 2026
Portugal Presidential Election
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
<1%
Rui Moreira (IND)
<1%
Paulo Portas (CDS)
<1%
Catarina Martins (BE)
<1%
Tim Vieira (IND)
<1%
Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
<1%
André Pestana (IND)
<1%
André Ventura (CH)
<1%
Orlando Cruz (IND)
<1%
Aristides Teixeira (IND)
<1%
Manuela Magno (IND)
<1%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
<1%
Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
<1%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
<1%
António José Seguro (IND)
>99%
Vitorino Silva (IND)
<1%
Ângela Maryah (IND)
<1%
António Filipe (PCP)
<1%
Raul Perestrello (IND)
<1%
José Cardoso (PLS)
<1%
Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
<1%
Jorge Pinto
<1%
$129,679,998 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
María Corina Machado
11%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
2%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Edmundo González
5%
Delcy Rodríguez
69%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$15,794,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?
580+
1%
560-579
<1%
540-559
<1%
520-539
1%
500-519
1%
480-499
2%
460-479
4%
440-459
4%
420-439
6%
400-419
6%
380-399
10%
360-379
12%
340-359
14%
320-339
15%
300-319
14%
280-299
7%
260-279
3%
240-259
2%
220-239
1%
200-219
<1%
180-199
<1%
160-179
<1%
140-159
<1%
120-139
<1%
100-119
<1%
80-99
<1%
60-79
<1%
40-59
<1%
20-39
<1%
<20
<1%
$1,453,140 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
Thailand Legislative Election Winner
Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)
29%
Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP)
<1%
Democrat Party (DP)
<1%
Prachachat Party (PCC)
<1%
People’s Party (PPLE)
71%
Pheu Thai Party (PT)
2%
United Thai Nation Party (UTN)
<1%
Chart Thai Pattana Party (CTPP)
<1%
Kla Tham Party (KT)
<1%
$5,069,902 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Starmer - UK PM
10%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
<1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
83%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
$5,577,668 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
63%
June 30
51%
March 31
40%
February 28
27%
February 15
15%
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 22
No
January 21
No
January 20
No
January 19
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
January 10
No
January 9
No
January 8
No
$10,594,935 Vol.
Feb 15, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,742,353 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?
240+
<1%
215-239
<1%
190-214
<1%
165-189
2%
140-164
8%
115-139
18%
90-114
38%
65-89
33%
40-64
2%
<40
<1%
$633,199 Vol.
Feb 7, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
17%
chance
$9,983,237 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026