Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
97%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
Judy Shelton
2%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
$402,243,159 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
What will Trump say this week (February 8)?
Nicki / Nikki / Rapper
17%
Hellhole
49%
Armada
31%
Transgender
68%
Biden's War
22%
TikTok
44%
Stagflation
9%
Kamala
36%
Anarchist
21%
Green Day / Bad Bunny
25%
Autopen / Auto Pen
Yes
Submarine / Helicopter
Yes
Cuba / Cigar
Yes
Hat
Yes
MAGA / Make America Great Again
Yes
No No No
Yes
Six Seven
Yes
$3,170,559 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
María Corina Machado
11%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
2%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Edmundo González
5%
Delcy Rodríguez
69%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$15,804,101 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Where will the US & Iran meet in person?
Turkey
2%
The United States
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
No Meeting by Feb 13
24%
Oman
70%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
2%
Another Country
3%
$300,815 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?
February 13
76%
February 6
62%
$451,032 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
Another US government shutdown by February 14?
67%
chance
$355,199 Vol.
Feb 14, 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
May 15
81%
May 1
55%
$196,455 Vol.
May 15, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
Jerome Powell
16%
Kevin Warsh
71%
Vladimir Putin
63%
Pope Leo XIV
5%
Maria Corina Machado
18%
Mohammed bin Salman
41%
MrBeast
7%
Yoon Suk Yeol
2%
Roger Goodell
65%
Reza Pahlavi
11%
Christopher Waller
17%
Rick Rieder
13%
Kevin Hassett
70%
Nicolás Maduro
3%
Kim Jong Un
4%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
71%
Ali Khamenei
4%
Mette Frederiksen
35%
Roger Stone
43%
Emmanuel Macron
63%
Xi Jinping
Yes
$239,844 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
$2t+
<1%
$500b–1t
<1%
<$100b
83%
$200–500b
9%
$100–200b
6%
$1–2t
<1%
$4,576,367 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Next Country US Strikes
Yemen
<1%
Somalia
86%
Colombia
<1%
Iran
8%
Mexico
<1%
Nigeria
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Venezuela
<1%
Cuba
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Syria
4%
Other
<1%
$170,723 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
19%
chance
$231,081 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
13%
chance
$26,570,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
32%
chance
$3,733,751 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Trump out as President by March 31?
3%
chance
$2,340,228 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
18%
chance
$394,722 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
20%
chance
$93,394 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
21%
chance
$7,558,615 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over__ in February?
>20%
70%
>15%
Yes
$79,491 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?
≤5
7%
22+
2%
18-21
14%
14-17
31%
10-13
32%
6-9
18%
$107,358 Vol.
Mar 4, 2026
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
98%
chance
$30,493 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026