Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$590.39K Vol.
4m
24d
10h
$590,393 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Outcome
% Chance
OpenAI
OpenAI
$248.71K Vol.
24%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek
$4.59K Vol.
10%
xAI
xAI
$169.64K Vol.
47%
Anthropic
Anthropic
$157.91K Vol.
24%
Meta
Meta
$1.34K Vol.
6%
Mistral
Mistral
$501.18 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
Alibaba
$336.44 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
Nvidia
$2.88K Vol.
2%
Baidu
Baidu
$736.98 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
Z.ai
$2.33K Vol.
7%
Meituan
Meituan
$1.41K Vol.
10%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."