Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
97%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
Judy Shelton
2%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
$402,451,854 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Fed decision in March?
25 bps decrease
8%
50+ bps decrease
1%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change
91%
$59,108,525 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
12+ (300+ bps)
2%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
2%
6 (150 bps)
4%
5 (125 bps)
6%
4 (100 bps)
14%
3 (75 bps)
24%
2 (50 bps)
26%
1 (25 bps)
16%
0 (0 bps)
8%
$4,237,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause
90%
Other
2%
Cut–Pause–Cut
9%
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
$769,404 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
May 14
8%
March 31
2%
$862,624 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Fed Decision in June?
25 bps decrease
51%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
2%
50+ bps decrease
7%
No change
40%
$142,901 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Fed decision in April?
25 bps decrease
18%
50+ bps decrease
3%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change
78%
$1,199,054 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
3%
chance
$184,222 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 5.5%
3%
↑ 5.25%
2%
↑ 5.0%
3%
↑ 4.75%
5%
↑ 4.5%
5%
↑ 4.25%
4%
↓ 3.25%
89%
↓ 3.0%
81%
↓ 2.75%
49%
↓ 2.5%
25%
↓ 2.25%
16%
↓ 2.0%
14%
↓ 1.75%
9%
↓ 1.5%
10%
↓ 1.25%
9%
↓ 1.0%
8%
↓ 0.75%
5%
↓ 0.5%
6%
↓ 0.25%
7%
↓ 0%
7%
↓ 3.5%
Yes
$564,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%
<1%
4.0%
1%
3.75%
8%
3.5%
16%
3.25%
25%
3.0%
28%
2.75%
13%
2.5%
5%
2.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
<1%
≤1.0%
3%
2.0%
1%
1.75%
<1%
1.5%
<1%
1.25
<1%
$126,924 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?
31%
chance
$1,069 Vol.
Feb 13, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
5.0%
3%
4.8%
2%
4.6%
8%
4.5%
22%
4.4%
52%
4.3%
Yes
$73,513 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates
79%
chance
$20,875 Vol.
Mar 20, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
June Meeting
75%
April Meeting
25%
March Meeting
10%
January Meeting
No
$709,516 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
7%
chance
$1,841 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026?
12%
chance
$33,998 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?
81%
chance
$4,235 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
2%
chance
$31,282 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
16%
chance
$16,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
December 31
72%
May 30
60%
$79,372 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026