event icon

US strikes Iran by...?

June 30

50%

March 31

39%

February 28

28%

February 20

18%

February 13

12%

February 9

6%

February 8

6%

February 7

4%

February 6

2%

February 5

<1%

December 31

No

February 4

No

February 3

No

February 2

No

February 1

No

January 31

No

January 30

No

January 29

No

January 28

No

January 27

No

January 26

No

January 25

No

January 24

No

January 23

No

January 18

No

January 17

No

January 16

No

January 15

No

January 14

No

January 13

No

January 12

No

January 11

No

$175,131,443 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

event icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

97%

Kevin Hassett

<1%

Christopher Waller

<1%

Bill Pulte

<1%

Judy Shelton

2%

David Malpass

<1%

Howard Lutnick

<1%

Arthur Laffer

<1%

Larry Kudlow

<1%

Jerome Powell

<1%

Ron Paul

<1%

Stephen Miran

<1%

Scott Bessent

<1%

James Bullard

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

<1%

David Zervos

<1%

Rick Rieder

<1%

Michelle Bowman

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

<1%

Philip Jefferson

<1%

Janet Yellen

<1%

Larry Lindsey

<1%

Barron Trump

<1%

Donald Trump

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

<1%

$401,890,351 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

event icon

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Stephen A. Smith

<1%

Gretchen Whitmer

2%

Oprah Winfrey

<1%

Andy Beshear

3%

Pete Buttigieg

5%

Jon Ossoff

3%

Gina Raimondo

<1%

Raphael Warnock

<1%

Barack Obama

<1%

George Clooney

<1%

Cory Booker

<1%

Jon Stewart

2%

Tim Walz

<1%

Bernie Sanders

<1%

Mark Kelly

2%

Liz Cheney

<1%

Beto O’Rourke

<1%

Michelle Obama

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

<1%

Andrew Yang

<1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

8%

Rahm Emanuel

2%

John Fetterman

<1%

Kim Kardashian

<1%

Ruben Gallego

2%

Jared Polis

<1%

Mark Cuban

<1%

Phil Murphy

1%

Wes Moore

2%

J.B. Pritzker

3%

LeBron James

<1%

Hunter Biden

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

<1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

1%

MrBeast

<1%

Chris Murphy

<1%

Ro Khanna

1%

Josh Shapiro

6%

Roy Cooper

<1%

Jasmine Crockett

<1%

Kamala Harris

7%

Hillary Clinton

<1%

Gavin Newsom

32%

$601,040,257 Vol.

Nov 7, 2028

event icon

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

↑ 150,000

<1%

↑ 125,000

<1%

↑ 120,000

<1%

↑ 115,000

<1%

↑ 110,000

1%

↑ 105,000

2%

↑ 100,000

3%

↑ 95,000

6%

↑ 90,000

10%

↑ 85,000

23%

↓ 70,000

87%

↓ 65,000

51%

↓ 60,000

24%

↓ 55,000

12%

↓ 50,000

6%

↓ 45,000

3%

↓ 40,000

2%

↓ 35,000

1%

↓ 80,000

Yes

↓ 75,000

Yes

$18,123,496 Vol.

Mar 1, 2026

event icon

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

25%

Elon Musk

<1%

Gavin Newsom

19%

Pete Buttigieg

2%

Tim Walz

<1%

Josh Shapiro

4%

Gretchen Whitmer

1%

Marco Rubio

8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

6%

Wes Moore

1%

Ron DeSantis

1%

LeBron James

<1%

Andy Beshear

2%

Glenn Youngkin

<1%

Tucker Carlson

<1%

Kamala Harris

5%

Ivanka Trump

1%

Stephen Smith

<1%

Tulsi Gabbard

<1%

JB Pritzker

2%

Donald Trump

3%

Jamie Dimon

<1%

Donald Trump Jr.

<1%

Nikki Haley

<1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

<1%

Greg Abbott

<1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

1%

Kim Kardashian

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

<1%

Michelle Obama

<1%

$255,583,856 Vol.

Nov 7, 2028

event icon

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain

16%

New Zealand

<1%

Switzerland

<1%

England

14%

France

13%

South Korea

<1%

Haiti

<1%

Brazil

10%

Jordan

<1%

Curaçao

<1%

Argentina

11%

Germany

6%

Colombia

2%

Iran

<1%

Portugal

7%

Ghana

<1%

Netherlands

3%

Algeria

<1%

Italy

2%

USA

2%

Canada

<1%

Uruguay

1%

Mexico

1%

Paraguay

<1%

Scotland

<1%

Japan

1%

Norway

2%

Tunisia

<1%

Ecuador

<1%

Uzbekistan

<1%

Morocco

2%

South Africa

<1%

Senegal

<1%

Ivory Coast

<1%

Cape Verde

<1%

Qatar

<1%

Belgium

2%

Australia

<1%

Saudi Arabia

<1%

Austria

<1%

Croatia

1%

Egypt

<1%

Peru

No

$115,273,354 Vol.

Jul 20, 2026

event icon

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump

5%

J.D. Vance

49%

Rand Paul

<1%

Marco Rubio

12%

Tulsi Gabbard

<1%

Glenn Youngkin

1%

Kim Kardashian

<1%

Donald Trump Jr.

2%

Matt Gaetz

1%

Ron DeSantis

3%

Marjorie Taylor Greene

2%

Nikki Haley

1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

<1%

Greg Abbott

<1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

<1%

Tucker Carlson

2%

Brian Kemp

<1%

Byron Donalds

<1%

Ivanka Trump

<1%

Elise Stefanik

<1%

Josh Hawley

1%

Ted Cruz

1%

Elon Musk

<1%

Erika Kirk

<1%

Katie Britt

<1%

John Thune

<1%

Kristi Noem

<1%

Mike Pence

<1%

Tom Brady

<1%

Steve Bannon

<1%

$248,488,716 Vol.

Nov 7, 2028

event icon

Fed decision in March?

25 bps decrease

8%

50+ bps decrease

1%

25+ bps increase

2%

No change

91%

$58,804,094 Vol.

Mar 18, 2026

event icon

2026 NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

39%

Houston Rockets

5%

New Orleans Pelicans

<1%

Toronto Raptors

<1%

Chicago Bulls

<1%

Cleveland Cavaliers

6%

New York Knicks

6%

Minnesota Timberwolves

4%

Phoenix Suns

1%

Boston Celtics

6%

Indiana Pacers

<1%

Orlando Magic

<1%

Denver Nuggets

12%

San Antonio Spurs

5%

Milwaukee Bucks

<1%

Los Angeles Clippers

2%

Golden State Warriors

1%

Dallas Mavericks

<1%

Detroit Pistons

6%

Memphis Grizzlies

<1%

Los Angeles Lakers

2%

Portland Trail Blazers

<1%

Atlanta Hawks

<1%

Brooklyn Nets

<1%

Charlotte Hornets

1%

Utah Jazz

<1%

Sacramento Kings

<1%

Miami Heat

1%

Philadelphia 76ers

2%

Washington Wizards

<1%

$230,796,809 Vol.

Jul 1, 2026

event icon

What will Trump say this week (February 8)?

Nicki / Nikki / Rapper

18%

Hellhole

51%

Armada

30%

No No No

98%

Transgender

73%

Biden's War

25%

TikTok

32%

Stagflation

17%

Kamala

53%

Anarchist

23%

Green Day / Bad Bunny

29%

Autopen / Auto Pen

Yes

Submarine / Helicopter

Yes

Cuba / Cigar

Yes

Hat

Yes

MAGA / Make America Great Again

Yes

Six Seven

Yes

$3,165,012 Vol.

Feb 8, 2026

event icon

Bitcoin above ___ on February 5?

96,000

<1%

94,000

<1%

92,000

<1%

90,000

<1%

88,000

<1%

86,000

<1%

84,000

<1%

82,000

<1%

80,000

<1%

78,000

<1%

76,000

2%

$4,158,342 Vol.

08h

07m

45s

event icon

What price will Solana hit in February?

↑ 200

<1%

↑ 190

<1%

↑ 180

<1%

↑ 170

1%

↑ 160

2%

↑ 150

3%

↑ 140

5%

↑ 130

10%

↑ 120

19%

↓ 90

>99%

↓ 80

55%

↓ 70

29%

↓ 60

15%

↓ 50

5%

↓ 40

2%

↓ 30

1%

↓ 20

<1%

↓ 110

Yes

↓ 100

Yes

$4,433,526 Vol.

Mar 1, 2026

event icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

740+

<1%

720-739

<1%

700-719

<1%

680-699

<1%

660-679

<1%

640-659

<1%

620-639

<1%

600-619

<1%

580-599

<1%

560-579

<1%

540-559

<1%

520-539

<1%

500-519

<1%

480-499

<1%

460-479

<1%

440-459

<1%

420-439

<1%

400-419

<1%

380-399

<1%

360-379

3%

340-359

8%

320-339

34%

300-319

37%

280-299

14%

260-279

2%

240-259

<1%

220-239

No

200-219

No

180-199

No

160-179

No

140-159

No

120-139

No

100-119

No

80-99

No

60-79

No

40-59

No

20-39

No

<20

No

$10,106,543 Vol.

Feb 6, 2026

event icon

English Premier League Winner

Brentford

<1%

Newcastle

<1%

Crystal Palace

<1%

Nottm Forest

<1%

Brighton

<1%

Liverpool

<1%

Arsenal

81%

Man City

15%

Burnley

<1%

Chelsea

<1%

Sunderland

<1%

Man United

2%

Tottenham

<1%

Aston Villa

2%

Bournemouth

<1%

Everton

<1%

West Ham

<1%

Fulham

<1%

Leeds

<1%

Wolves

No

$216,310,744 Vol.

May 27, 2026

event icon

La Liga Winner

Celta Vigo

<1%

Oviedo

<1%

Betis

<1%

Mallorca

<1%

Osasuna

<1%

Levante

<1%

Rayo Vallecano

<1%

Real Madrid

39%

Barcelona

61%

Villarreal

<1%

Athletic Bilbao

<1%

Real Sociedad

<1%

Girona

<1%

Elche

<1%

Valencia

<1%

Sevilla

<1%

Espanyol

<1%

Getafe

<1%

Alaves

<1%

Atletico Madrid

<1%

$73,984,447 Vol.

May 30, 2026

event icon

What price will Ethereum hit in February?

↑ 5,000

<1%

↑ 4,400

<1%

↑ 4,200

<1%

↑ 4,000

<1%

↑ 3,800

1%

↑ 3,600

2%

↑ 3,400

3%

↑ 3,200

4%

↑ 3,000

7%

↑ 2,800

15%

↓ 2,000

78%

↓ 1,800

46%

↓ 1,600

23%

↓ 1,400

13%

↓ 1,200

6%

↓ 1,000

2%

↓ 800

1%

↓ 2,600

Yes

↓ 2,400

Yes

↓ 2,200

Yes

$5,670,742 Vol.

Mar 1, 2026

event icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

February 28

1%

No strike by February 28

72%

February 27

<1%

February 26

<1%

February 25

<1%

February 24

<1%

February 23

<1%

February 22

<1%

February 21

2%

February 20

1%

February 19

<1%

February 18

<1%

February 17

<1%

February 16

<1%

February 15

<1%

February 14

2%

February 13

2%

February 12

1%

February 11

<1%

February 10

2%

February 9

1%

February 8

3%

February 7

3%

February 6

2%

February 5

<1%

February 4

<1%

February 3

<1%

January 2026

No

February 2

No

February 1

No

$6,719,504 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

event icon

NBA MVP

Trae Young

<1%

Kawhi Leonard

<1%

LeBron James

<1%

Ja Morant

<1%

Devin Booker

<1%

Cooper Flagg

<1%

Tyrese Maxey

<1%

Nikola Jokic

18%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

68%

Luka Doncic

11%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

<1%

Anthony Edwards

<1%

Victor Wembanyama

<1%

Jalen Brunson

<1%

Cade Cunningham

3%

Donovan Mitchell

<1%

Kevin Durant

<1%

Paolo Banchero

<1%

Stephen Curry

<1%

Anthony Davis

<1%

Joel Embiid

<1%

Jaylen Brown

<1%

$20,669,634 Vol.

Jun 10, 2026

event icon

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

5%

chance

$2,104,487 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

event icon

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

740+

<1%

720-739

<1%

700-719

<1%

680-699

<1%

660-679

<1%

640-659

<1%

620-639

<1%

600-619

<1%

580-599

<1%

560-579

<1%

540-559

<1%

520-539

<1%

500-519

<1%

480-499

1%

460-479

2%

440-459

3%

420-439

5%

400-419

6%

380-399

9%

360-379

14%

340-359

17%

320-339

19%

300-319

16%

280-299

7%

260-279

4%

240-259

2%

220-239

<1%

200-219

<1%

180-199

<1%

160-179

<1%

140-159

<1%

120-139

<1%

100-119

<1%

80-99

<1%

60-79

No

40-59

No

20-39

No

<20

No

$5,217,720 Vol.

Feb 10, 2026