US strikes Iran by...?
June 30
51%
March 31
41%
February 28
28%
February 20
18%
February 13
12%
February 9
7%
February 8
6%
February 7
4%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
December 31
No
February 4
No
February 3
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 15
No
January 14
No
January 13
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
$175,479,340 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
February 28
1%
No strike by February 28
73%
February 27
<1%
February 26
<1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 22
<1%
February 21
2%
February 20
<1%
February 19
<1%
February 18
<1%
February 17
<1%
February 16
<1%
February 15
<1%
February 14
2%
February 13
3%
February 12
1%
February 11
<1%
February 10
1%
February 9
1%
February 8
2%
February 7
3%
February 6
2%
February 5
<1%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 1
No
$6,767,892 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
X banned in U.K. by March 31?
5%
chance
$2,105,660 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Portugal Presidential Election
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
<1%
Rui Moreira (IND)
<1%
Paulo Portas (CDS)
<1%
Catarina Martins (BE)
<1%
Tim Vieira (IND)
<1%
Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
<1%
André Pestana (IND)
<1%
André Ventura (CH)
<1%
Orlando Cruz (IND)
<1%
Aristides Teixeira (IND)
<1%
Manuela Magno (IND)
<1%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
<1%
Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
<1%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
<1%
António José Seguro (IND)
>99%
Vitorino Silva (IND)
<1%
Ângela Maryah (IND)
<1%
António Filipe (PCP)
<1%
Raul Perestrello (IND)
<1%
José Cardoso (PLS)
<1%
Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
<1%
Jorge Pinto
<1%
$129,744,414 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Thailand Legislative Election Winner
Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)
28%
Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP)
<1%
Democrat Party (DP)
<1%
Prachachat Party (PCC)
<1%
People’s Party (PPLE)
71%
Pheu Thai Party (PT)
2%
United Thai Nation Party (UTN)
<1%
Chart Thai Pattana Party (CTPP)
<1%
Kla Tham Party (KT)
<1%
$5,080,735 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Starmer - UK PM
9%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
<1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
3%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
3%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
82%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
$5,605,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
64%
June 30
51%
March 31
41%
February 28
27%
February 15
14%
January 31
No
January 30
No
January 29
No
January 28
No
January 27
No
January 26
No
January 25
No
January 24
No
January 23
No
January 22
No
January 21
No
January 20
No
January 19
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
January 16
No
January 12
No
January 11
No
January 10
No
January 9
No
January 8
No
$10,597,791 Vol.
Feb 15, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
10%
chance
$13,753,574 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
16%
chance
$9,989,181 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
6%
chance
$409,029 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2%
chance
$2,120,277 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
97%
chance
$986,534 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Viktor Orbán
42%
Péter Magyar
57%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
László Toroczkai
1%
István Kapitány
<1%
János Lázár
<1%
$6,475,907 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
February 7
50%
February 6
56%
February 5
42%
February 4
<1%
February 3
<1%
February 2
Yes
February 1
Yes
$731,018 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?
Sanae Takaichi
99%
Shinjirō Koizumi
<1%
Yoshihiko Noda
<1%
Tetsuo Saito
<1%
Hirofumi Yoshimura
<1%
Toshimitsu Motegi
<1%
Takayuki Kobayashi
<1%
Yūichirō Tamaki
<1%
Yoshimasa Hayashi
<1%
Taro Kono
<1%
Yōko Kamikawa
<1%
Fumitake Fujita
<1%
$1,712,848 Vol.
Feb 8, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
6%
chance
$504,483 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals
Canada
2%
France
<1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
<1%
Sweden
<1%
United States
23%
Austria
<1%
China
<1%
Germany
7%
Japan
<1%
Norway
66%
Switzerland
<1%
$1,085,110 Vol.
Feb 22, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Tarcisio de Freitas
5%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
6%
Renan Santos
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro
26%
$15,447,558 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?
80%
chance
$280,934 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Next Country US Strikes
Yemen
<1%
Somalia
86%
Colombia
<1%
Iran
8%
Mexico
<1%
Nigeria
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Venezuela
<1%
Cuba
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Syria
4%
Other
<1%
$170,723 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026