NASA Artemis II
February 28
<1%
Artemis II explodes?
9%
March 31
45%
February 7
<1%
$285,957 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
200 or more
49%
180-199
21%
160-179
21%
140-159
7%
120-139
8%
100-119
6%
<100
7%
$38,598 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?
6%
chance
$476,411 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
3%
Stripe
<1%
SpaceX
86%
OpenAI
5%
Kraken
2%
Anthropic
4%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
$65,680 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
84%
chance
$13,962 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
How many SpaceX launches in February?
11 or more
67%
10
16%
9
1%
8
3%
7
6%
5
4%
<5
7%
$64,172 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
2.0T+
27%
1.8T–2.0T
33%
1.6T–1.8T
12%
1.4T–1.6T
8%
1.2T–1.4T
4%
<1.0T
11%
1.0T–1.2T
4%
No IPO before 2028
6%
$107,225 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
>16
7%
15-16
2%
13-14
2%
11-12
9%
9-10
18%
7-8
30%
5-6
26%
<5
11%
$154,160 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$200M
3%
$160M
3%
$140M
3%
$120M
5%
$100M
10%
$80M
10%
$60M
13%
$40M
27%
$15M
60%
$5M
82%
$352,293 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
17%
chance
$58,305 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
chance
$55,328 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
49%
chance
$159,847 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
December 31
83%
September 30
76%
June 30
60%
March 31
8%
$5,211 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
24%
chance
$83,841 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Natural Disaster in 2026?
46%
chance
$99,074 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
chance
$3,418 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
93%
chance
$353 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027